Polls Say Critical Race Theory Was the Deciding Factor in Virginia, But McAuliffe Had a Weapon Available That He Never Used.
We looked at over 8.1 million online messages to understand the “pain points” that matter most to voters.
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BIG TAKEAWAY: Campaign messages fall flat without the right villain, and the GOP’s protection of the wealthy is their biggest vulnerability post-pandemic.
McAuliffe’s linking Youngkin to Trump worked while the Delta variant surged in August, but COVID was less important by election day.
Youngkin tapped into post-pandemic frustration with schools - that was bigger than racial politics.
Moreover, post-pandemic economic outcomes left voters especially frustrated with wealthy people who profited.
In September, it appeared that Terry McAuliffe was headed for victory in the upcoming election - his opponent Glenn Youngkin was so associated with opposition to COVID safety measures that his name was mentioned more than any other individual when Virginians talked about COVID online:
Top 20 phrases in online Virginia conversation about COVID (Sept. 24-Oct.7):
But in the final two months, COVID was declining in importance to Virginians as the election approached:
Meanwhile, Glenn Youngkin tested a new message that focused on giving parents more control over their children’s education (focused on banning Critical Race Theory). In doing so, he tapped into a deeper well of parental frustration.
Here is the amount of positivity in parents’ discussion of schools in September and October of 2019, 2020, and 2021:
Even in 2020, as parents were tasked with remote learning and schools closed, the conversation was ⅔ positive, but after a full year of the pandemic, parents were expressing almost as much negativity as positivity when talking about their kids’ schools online.
Youngkin found the most potent villain: schools.
However, had McAuliffe focused more on Youngkin’s wealth and background in elite finance--making Youngkin the villain by linking him with the wealthy class that profited during the pandemic and highlighting his plan to cut taxes--he could have tapped into a sense of injustice that may have changed the outcome.
Republican tax cuts are deeply unpopular right now - here is the positive/negative/neutral sentiment expressed when Americans talked about GOP tax cuts over the past six months:
And here are the top phrases in that conversation, also color-coded by sentiment:
Bottom line: When voters are frustrated, Democrats must tell them who is to blame. Trump did not feel like as much of a threat to Virginians as school administrators, but supporting tax cuts for the rich (after the rich got richer during a pandemic that wrecked everyone else’s finances) is still a devastating attack on Republicans. Democrats in 2022 should refuse to let the GOP off the hook and let voters know which party protects the wealthy pandemic profiteers and which party will defend the interests of the middle class.